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Predictive scores sort your contacts by how engaged they are, how likely they are to drift away and how likely they are to buy. They are calculated with fixed formulas from data you already have: opens and clicks, bounces and complaints, goals and purchases (including Shopify orders). No AI model is involved, and each score comes with the reasons behind it.

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The scores

Opens from security scanners and image prefetching never count, and only marketing email is used: transactional email does not affect anyone’s scores.

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Tiers

Every contact is placed in one tier, checked in this order:

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Where you see them

  • Contacts: the Predictive tiers strip above the table shows how your contacts split across tiers. Click a tier to filter the table; the filter is part of the page address, so export and bulk actions use it too. Add the Tier column from the column picker.
  • A contact’s page: the Predictive scores card shows the tier, the three scores with their reasons, the predicted value and when they were computed.
  • Segments: the Predictive score rule. Pick Is at least or Is less than with a score and a number (for example Churn risk is at least 60), or Tier is / Tier is one of. A typical win-back segment is Tier is At risk AND Purchase propensity is at least 40.
  • Spark and MCP: get_audience_summary includes the tier counts, and create_segment accepts score conditions. Only counts are shared, never which contacts are in a tier.

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When scores are updated

Scores are refreshed by a scheduled run (daily, once scheduled runs are switched on for your workspace). To rescore now, click Recompute on the tier strip (you need permission to edit contacts). It runs in the background; the strip shows progress and the tiers update when it finishes. Contacts added since the last run have no score yet and match no score rule.
In a workspace where fewer than 50 contacts have opened, clicked or reached a goal in the last year, scores are still computed but marked Low confidence. There is too little activity for the ranking to mean much.

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Troubleshooting

Every contact is New or Dormant. Scores need history: send a few campaigns, or record purchases with goals or the Shopify integration, then recompute. No predicted value. It needs at least one purchase goal with a value. Purchases in a currency other than the one your workspace uses most are left out of the value. The tier strip says scores have not been computed yet. No run has reached your workspace yet. Click Recompute.